Compiled by Brendan Wissinger

For my next blog post I am going to talk about Climate Change and National Security and Conflict.  The US Department of Defense calls climate change a “threat multiplier.” This is the possibly the deadliest impact of Climate Change.  In this I will explain the current and future amplifications of this and how Climate Change amplifies war.

            Let’s again take a trip around the world, let’s first start in Norfolk Naval Base, Virginia.  Its home to the US Atlantic Fleet. But is under threat by sea level rise. Over the last 10 years the shipyard on the naval base has faced nine major floods.  The flooding is getting worse. The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew caused $1.2 million in repairs. And Hurricane Matthew didn’t directly hit the naval base.  The vital Dry Docks are at risk of being damaged.  Currently the flooding at high tide, is causing delays in ship repairs. Next let’s go to the Arctic Ocean where melting sea ice opens up the US to new vulnerabilities with its adversary, Russia.  The melting ice makes the waters more able to be navigated.  Which creates new shipping areas, which must be protected and it opens up a new front on the current second cold war with Russia.  This means the US military needs to invest in a buildup of military forces in the region.  Russia and China are already investing to exploit this new front (Dire Pedictions and Age of Consequences). Across the world in Syria, an ongoing civil war that has killed 511,000 people and displaced 12.2 million people.  The war has 4 sides, the Syrian Kurds, and Free Syrian Army, the totalitarian Syrian Government and the terrorist group ISIS.  Throughout the war different groups have moved from side to side and fought different groups.  Parts of the Free Syrian Army have allied with the Kurds to form a rebel state called Rojava who was gaining a significant foothold until a new Turkish backed Free Syrian Army started taking ground from them.  The evil terrorist group ISIS or ISIL or Daesh is fighting every other group in the war and every other group is fighting them including other Jihadist terrorist groups, and internationally many countries have intervened to help other groups quash the terrorist group territorially.  Meanwhile the totalitarian Syrian Government which does chemical warfare on its own civilians has taken back much of its territory with the aid of Russia and Iran (hrw, and rfi ). The war started after a 10 year famine, caused by drought, which has been attributed to partly being caused by Climate Change pushed the society to collapse, by destroying agriculture driving farming Syrians to cities where food prices were high and their was no employment causing citizens to rebel against its totalitarian government, setting fire to an already fragile state. Next on our places to visit is the War in Darfur, in Sudan.  This war and genocide started with a drought partly attributed to Climate Change which pushed non-Arab people of the western region of Sudan, Darfur, to their breaking point, and the revolted against the tyrannical government of Sudan, which then sent Arab militias or the Janjaweed to kill and rape civilians (as well as fighting the Non-Arab Rebels) and prevented international aid from coming to the region.  The conflict and related crisises killed hundreds of thousands and displaced 2 million people. This occurs in a region where rainfall has gone down by 30% over the past 40 years causing the Sahara desert to move into the region partly because of climate change. Other conflicts that may be influenced by Climate Change may include South Sudan Civil War, Yemen Civil War, the ISIS Invasion of Iraq and the Libyan Civil War. 

            The US Department of Defense calls Climate Change a “threat multiplier” meaning it makes conflict more likely to happen and more deadly. Though Climate Change itself doesn’t necessarily cause conflict by itself. You might ask how Climate Change amplifies wars.  It does this in several ways.  First it does this by creating a lack of resources for example water, food and fertile land or land than isn’t underwater. This can cause wars over these resources as their may not be enough resources to provide for people’s needs.  Climate Change causes drought and desertification and glacial melting leading to dwindling fertile land and less water supplies, which countries may fight over to obtain. This will exacerbated environmental refugees that I talk about coming up.  Another way Climate Change can cause wars is by stressing an already stressed society to collapse through famines, droughts, economic collapses, sea level rise. Each of these are made more likely by Climate Change which can be the final straw then can push poor countries with corrupt or totalitarian governments into chaos (Age of Consequences).  It can end liveihoods, cause people not to have their needs to survive, at which point they will fight to survive (theyearsproject).  Climate Change can cause humanitarian crises which can lead to fights for the limited resources now available as supply chains and support systems have broken down, this is made worse when people move to new regions which may aggravate already stressed populations (Age of Consequences). For example like in Syria, a drought can lead to loss of liveihoods, leading to people moving to cities where their already is a food shortage and they are unemployed, leading to Civil Unrest, a lot of desperate and angry people leads to rebellion, and sometimes terrorism. And those terrorist groups may attack us. Climate Change is not the single cause of any war, but it is part of a series of causes that causes any war (Age of Consequences).  Also global trade can be affected by Climate Change, in 2010 when Russia and China were hit be severe heatwaves devastated wheat crops, driving up the price of bread, leading to unrest in regions like Egypt as they were too poor to buy the higher prices. Another reason for instability is special circumstances for example Climate Change causing melting Arctic Sea Ice will open up new trade routes where we will be competing with Russia, securing those trade routes requires military resources to be place their when there are also other places they can be used. Another is drought in Afghanistan is causing the population to grow more drought resistant but illegal crops, poppies, which terrorists groups have used to profit off of and grow by allowing farmers to grow poppies.  Sea Level Rise, will cause people to become Environmental Refugees to be displaced and move inland where they will compete with inland populations possibly leading to tension, which may lead to conflict. And immigrant tensions rise and it will get worse as resources dwindle due to Climate Change.  The poor will not get those resources, the rich will increasing the chance for conflict (Age of Consequences). Sea Level Rise is also flooding the home of America’s Atlantic fleet in Norfolk, Virginia.  Another example is more natural disasters when natural disasters happen supply chains may break down and there may not be enough emergency supplies to give to the whole population, leading to unrest (Age of Consequences).  In addition to Sea Level Rise environmental refugees, or people forced from their homes because of environmental conditions, may be caused by drought and desertification, for example in the Sahel where environmental refugees are leaving because of drought and heading north, dangerously crossing the Sahara, and then even more dangerously crossing the Mediterranean to Europe. These people feel they have no other choice so they will do this.  Large populations with no food, water or permanent shelter, leads to instability and conflict.  And really most immigrants are refugees, as economic reasons for leaving and environmental and security reasons usually get tied up together.  As droughts and floods get worse and especially Sea Level Rise gets worse, these conflicts will get worse (Age of Consequences).  Another reason why more people may die of war because of Climate Change is hotter temperatures causes stress, causing more battles and more gunfire and more deaths. Finally Mitigating Climate Change would stop our reliance on Oil, then we would not have to have close relationships with and secure fragile states and tyrannical states for example Iraq and Saudi Arabia (Age of Consequences).

With increasing temperatures Climate Change’s deadly influence on conflict will only get worse unless we mitigate emissions immediately.  I cannot give specific numbers on how worse but I can give examples on how it will get worse.  First let’s go to the Indian Subcontinent.  This region is ripe for problems from Climate Change.  There is already tension in the region between the nuclear powers of Pakistan and India with China taking Pakistan’s side. India and Pakistan already have high tensions over water. Also India wants to free Tibet which under the control of China. Climate Change will make things worse let’s start in Bangladesh where Sea Level Rise and Cyclones is flooding farms in the south which not only hurts crops by the floods themselves but also by erosion and the salt that is brought in.  It is ruining liveihoods, and leaving farmers and their families struggling to survive, so they move north as environmental refugees to the city of Dhaka, into unsanitary decrepit slums where flooding still may be prevalent, the live in shacks, with many other people, and children may be pressed into dangerous child labor and child marriages.  By 2100, 20% of the country would be submerged at a modest 3 ft of sea level rise.  The influx of people is causing people to try to move north to India, but India is building a wall of razor wire with armed guards, who will shoot anyone who crosses the border with them and Bangladesh (The Age of Consequences).  To make matters worse, Climate Change is supposed to cause longer droughts, more variable monsoons and more intense monsoons.  So their won’t be as many rainfalls but they will be more intense.  This causes crops to either be flooded out or dried out, it causes a lack of water for people in India leading to possible conflicts over water resources needed over the longer dry period.  Also up in the Himalayas, where many people get their water from glaciers are melting and losing water meaning people are losing access to water when warmer temperatures make them need more water, leading to conflict over resources.  Combined with the current tension over Kashmir this region is a powderkeg in the future (The Age of Consequences).  Another region of concern is parts of the Middle East could be so hot and so dry they would be inhabitable. This means a lack of resources and more environmental refugees moving to wetter and cooler climates, both of these could cause a lot more war across the Middle East and North Africa.  The lack of resources caused by intense rainfall, long droughts, sea level rise and environmental refugees can also increase conflict in Sub-Sahara Africa. Most of the region relies on subsistence agriculture.  These factors could push fragile states in the region over the edge.  Drought is already affecting the Horn of Africa and the Sahel regions, increasing the likelihood for conflict in the region. Another problem is dwindling fishing supplies could lead to more conflict over fishing grounds and more piracy, this could also play out in the Horn of Africa, where piracy is already a problem. Lastly let’s go to the areas around Russia, as ice melts, Russia will gain access to oil and gas fields, below the ice, giving them more resources, another concern is that if anybody stands to benefit from Climate Change it’s Russia, as agriculture yields could increase there in a warmer climate in Russia, and mineral resources could be opened up by the melting ice.  In other ways Climate Change will adversely affect Russia, and there will be more negatives than positives for Russia. But it many stand to lose less than the US, which places Russia on a higher playing field against the United States.

The US Military is the largest buyer of oil in the world.  Each year the military acquisitions 100 million barrels to power everything from military bases to tanks to Humvees to aircraft to naval vessels. This itself makes the US military vulnerable as all of that stuff has to be imported using convoys, a big target, and the oil’s price can fluctuate wildly (then again when has the military cared about the cost of something).  Recently the US military is trying to change this, by trying to switch to mobile solar panels and wind turbines for military bases which can be used without long supply chains back to home. The Military is doing research into sun powered aircraft and hybrid-engine vehicles and tanks, meanwhile the military is experimenting and using biofuels. The US Armed Forces can’t use battery powered equipment because in a combat zone there is no infrastructure for that, so biofuels and hydrogen are the best answers for the military.  The US Armed Forces has a goal to be petroleum free by 2040.  The US Air Force has a goal to use biofuels for 50% of its within the US aviation by 2016.  By 2025, the Department of Defense says 25% of its facilities must use renewable energy.

The US military has to adapt to the challenge of Climate Change.  The US military is taking measures to build seawalls, and building pumps to pump out seawater and floodwater and building buildings on higher ground to deal with hurricanes and climate change. Warmer weathers which can break down equipment and effect the days the military is training could also hurt the military and that is something else they have to adapt to.  The military will also have to beef up and make choices regarding on which countries to go to because of Climate Change being a “threat multiplier.”  The military will also have to beef up the amount of troops in the Arctic to secure shipping lanes.

What the U.S. Military is Doing About Climate Change

The link between crime and climate has drawn attention to the field of criminology and sociology since the mid-19th century. With temperatures quickly rising, we could see an increase of two to three million more violent crimes between now and the end of the century. With studies being conducted that show the link between warming temperatures and an increase in crime, there is one likely explanation; warmer temps lead to more people being out and about, which creates more opportunity for crime. 

The Temperature- Aggression Hypothesis

The temperature- aggression hypothesis basically states that people exposed to psychological heat stress are more likely to see personal interactions as aggressive rather than ordinary conversations; we all know how cranky some people can get when they are out on a hot, humid summer day. This can result in someone getting angry over a situation they would not typically be angry about. The biggest increases in crime were rape, sexual assault, violence involving a weapon, and violence resaulting in serious injury. The temperature- aggression hypothesis will describe an increase in violent crimes, but not necessarily property damage, or robberies. Although, property damage and robberies will still increase due to the fact that more people will be outside and around other people’s property. Property damage and robberies can be driven by the “Routine Activities Theory”, which states that crime doesn’t typically happen in isolation, and is driven by opportunity. Heat creates opportunity for more people to be on the streets, and be negatively influenced.  

The Trends

Research pulled from the FBI crime database and NOAA climate data shows the correlations becoming more relevant in warmer winters. The crimes that have shown the biggest spike include assaults and robberies. 

(Figure 1: Courtesy of IOP Science)

On the graph above, you can see the general rising trend of the amount of violent crimes committed per month that correlate with the increase in temperature. From 1.5 degrees celsius, you see a little less than 1,000 violent crimes being committed per month, while at a 4 degree celsius rise in temperature, you see 3,000-5,000 violent crimes being committed per month. Much research is being done to predict the projected increase in crime at certain temperatures. This could be a good way to bring attention to the public about climate change, because crime will directly affect the population in a more immediate way than climate change alone. 

Overall, as long as temperatures continue to increase, so will crime. The only way we can reduce climate-induced crime is to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and improve our climate conditions. I see bringing climate-induced crime to the public eye as a good way to educate people on the more immediate effects of climate change, most people turn a blind eye to the situation because they assume it will not affect them in their lifetime. Let’s start now.

-Kaila Teets

 Global agriculture is inextricably linked with the Earth’s climate. Minute changes in climate could have a significant effect on local agricultures around the world. Climate changes is in some aspects, like local moisture levels, causing a polarization of climate, in the sense that climate is getting pushed towards one of two ends of a spectrum: either severe drought of frequent flooding. Trends show a feedback response where wet places are getting wetter and drier places are getting drier. There are, of course always exceptions to the rules, but these are somewhat few and far between. These changes could end up causing chain reactions and thus having major impacts on agriculture across the globe.

Drought is the more commonly thought of effect of climate change on regions of agricultural use. Drought is defined as a prolonged period of time where there is not sufficient levels of precipitation or moisture. As we all know, plants are dependent of having sufficient amounts of water. Without it, the existing crops would dry up and die, and new seeds may never even sprout in the first place. This would create food shortages in many drier regions of the world and will cut production across many high production areas, like California. This shortage of both farmed plants, as well as wild plants, would have a severe effect of grazing lands. Many places not particularly well suited to growing plants, like the steppes of central Asia or southern Argentina, maintain agricultural industries by grazing large numbers of cows and other livestock. Lack of food and water could decimate the populations of farm animals in these regions. These droughts themselves would likely be long term, which would cause desertification to occur in these areas.

Figure 1: A map of areas at risk for desertification. Courtesy of USDA

On the other hand, we have flooding events. Flooding events create a whole different set of issues for agriculture, albeit with a similar end result. Excessive amounts of water running through water bodies will cause flooding. The flood waters themselves will often choke out drops that are trying to grow in those areas, in addition to drowning the livestock that gets left behind and are unable to escape the quickly rising waters. Even after the water recedes, however, it will still kill of crops. The soil will retain lot of the water, and that creates a breeding ground for plant pathogens, like viruses, bacteria, and fungi. Plus, the water in the ground will greatly increase the odds of plants rotting of en masse following these flooding events. The end result is a shortage of crops, and lower numbers of livestock.

Figure 2: Map of flood damage to the US in the future. Courtesy of the EPA

These mass failures in agriculture will have profound effects on human society as well, which will be worsened by it creating its own feedback loop. Shortage of crops and agricultural products would cause more famines, particularly in already stressed regions, as well as exacerbate existing famines around the world. These famines would like cause large amounts of civil unrest in areas hard hit by the crop failures. The civil unrest will itself worsen the ability for food to be distributed to mitigate the famine. These factors will cause large scale migrations of people to neighboring regions. The influx of these people will put additional strain on areas that may have only just been getting by with the resources available to them. This will most likely result in a large-scale crisis over the long term, which will subsequently require large scale intervention from the international community to effectively combat these issues.

I feel the need to address the counterpoint often given: won’t the melting ice and permafrost open up new ground for farming and agriculture in more northern or southern locations? The short answer is sort of, but not really. Land that has been under ice will have lost most of its topsoil and nutrients to the movement of the ice over time, and thus you would be trying to farm or graze on nothing but gravel in these areas. Some areas opened up by permafrost will be able to be farmed on a small scale, but soil there is still pretty poor and the unevenness of the terrain would make it difficult to do any large-scale farming in these locations. It would not be able to offset the losses occurred in other areas due to drought, flooding, fires, and other climate stresses.

To sum up, the climate will have significant impacts on global agriculture. No matter what the change is, it will, in most cases, cause significant detrimental effects on local agriculture across large swathes of the world. Human society will be strained in the areas most strongly affected by the changes. There will be significant secondary repercussions if the climate change is allowed to run rampant and cause these declines in agriculture. These declines will not be offset by any land gained from thawing.  

Image Sources:

Figure 1: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/use/worldsoils/?cid=nrcs142p2_054004

Figure 2: https://www.epa.gov/cira/climate-action-benefits-inland-flooding

Compiled by Brendan Wissinger

            For my second topic I will be talking about climate change and droughts. Droughts are alarming because communities can run low or even run out of water, and crops can die from droughts and water is needed for many different power plants for example nuclear and hydropower and this may cut off electricity and combined with the heatwaves that usually go alone with droughts this can lead to deadly consequences.

            Again the climate change driven droughts are happening now, and they are a current concern. Let’s take a trip around the world again to see these impacts first stop is California.  Between 2012 and 2014, climate change intensified a drought in California by 15 to 20%.  This was projected to cost the economy of California $2.7 billion per year.  The drought caused crops to die and injured livelihoods. Much of the fruits and vegetables in the US come from California. Attribution studies have also linked this heatwave to Climate Change. Another area where droughts have been persistent is Australia. In Communities Australia people are leaving as they lose jobs from the drought and the communities are becoming poorer and smaller ghosts of themselves and they have to sell their livestock and move away.  Much of Eastern Australia has been having drier than normal conditions since 2013 (with the exception of 2016) until at least 2018.  The droughts have been the worst in western Queensland.  Droughts have gotten worse through 2018.  The hot weather can kill crops and drier soils can also kill crops or decrease yields.  The soil has been the driest its been in 105 years in many areas of New South Wales. This also is partly attributed to Climate Change.  This drought caused large wildfires in Australia.  Our next stop on our tour of misery is East Africa.  The droughts in the poor areas of the Horn of Africa have been the worst in 60 years in large areas of Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya.  Over 11 million people are affected were affected between 2011 and 2012, leading to large scale famine.  Again in 2017 drought has occurred again and it is still ongoing.  More than 12 million people are going starving.  Eighty percent of the population relies on subsistence farming where they only can make enough food to feed themselves and their families and the drought they destroys their crops leaves them with little options.   Currently these areas are facing a swarms of locusts.  When rain does occur it comes in downpours that also destroys crops. Many are leaving these countries as environmental refugees living in refugees camps in areas on the outskirts of this crisis for example Kenya. This drought has also been partly attributed to climate change.  Another area where droughts are of concern is Syria. The drought in Syria which lasted about 15 years, was the worst in 900 years! Because of the drought there was a failure in 75% of Syria’s farms and 85% of livestock died between 2006 and 2011. This failure of agriculture, caused over 1.5 million Syrian internal environmental refugees which moved to cities which could not or would not accommodate them, leaving them hungry, homeless and angry.  This situation helped catalyze the uprising to the dictator of Syria that caused the Syrian Civil War which killed around 511,000 people and displaced 12.2 million people.  This drought has also attributed to Climate Change.  The Last Place on our tour is South Africa where drought has been getting worse from 2018 onward and a major city in South Africa almost ran out of water. The southern Africa, droughts have led to food shortages affecting 45 million people.  To make matters worse this past year the droughts were interluded by cyclones. Countries affected include Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzaina, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa.  Worse affected were the countries of Zambia and Zimbabwe.  Grain production has decreased by 30 percent and Zimbabwe is running out of corn. Livestock has suffered loses from starvations. Here, drought has been a problem for several years. Cape Town, South Africa was close to running out of water, and having to have the water system shut off. Other impacts include California having the driest year on record in 2013, and in 2011 Texas had its driest year.

The Impacts of droughts can be economic, or human costs, indirect or direct.  Droughts impact agriculture and kill crops for example corn, soybeans and wheat from not enough water.  Also heatwaves that usually go with droughts can kill crops because of the heat.  The lack of water can lead to dehydration or starvation of livestock and the heat can also kill livestock. This may cause a farmer to lose much of their yearly income and if their a subsistence farmer who only makes enough normally just to live off of, it can be deadly. Also droughts may increase the funds needed for water and feed for animals and irrigation. This all leads to higher food prices and in extreme cases famine.  Droughts can also affect transportation on major canals and rivers by decreasing water levels.  Also heatwaves that go with droughts can buckle roadways, and rail infrastructure.  Droughts also allow wildfires to spread, and coupled with the heat goes with them can make a deadly mix. Millions of acres and thousands of homes have been lost because of fires in the past decade.  Wildfires are expected to be six times larger in 20 years.  Droughts can decrease the water getting to steam turbines used in nuclear and coal fired power plants, and decrease water used for cooling in Nuclear power plants, and decreased water levels are problematic for hydropower plants. And when droughts and heatwaves go together more people are using their air conditioning complicating matters.  Also the heatwaves that usually coincide with droughts can kills hundreds or thousands, sometimes tens of thousands (like the 2003 European Heatwave killed 70,000 people) of people.  Droughts can lead to an increase in disease in wild animals with less supplies for food and water which itself is problematic.  Droughts can also destroy habitats for example forests, through forest fires, wetlands, and ponds through evaporation and drainage.  The heatwaves that coincide with droughts can exacerbate air pollution leading to deaths from that.  Also droughts and famines often can lead to societal stress that causes wars and conflict. For example the Syrian Civil War was preceded by a long drought that led to shortages of food and loss of livelihoods which was part of catalyst for the war which has killed over 500,000 people. The US Department of Defense has named Climate Change a “threat multiplier” for this reason.  As people lose their livelihoods or cannot get food, societies are pushed to collapse, leading to wars, terrorism and refugees.  Also wars over resources for example food and water will likely increase in the future.   Also long lasting droughts can displace persons leading to environmental refugees, and causing mass migrations.

Projections of Climate Change suggest that warming will cause droughts to get hotter and longer, and rain to happen less often but when it does come it will come in severe downpours, flooding areas. In general drier areas on Earth are expected to get drier and wetter areas are expected to get wetter.  Its expected to get a lot worse in the future.  At current rates of emissions and warming we could see droughts lasting on and off for decades in the Southwestern US, meaning the entire climate there would change to be drier. Again the countries that will be worst affected will be developing countries, especially African countries.  In areas fed by glaciers, the melting of glaciers from climate change can leave areas without water, this is especially important in India, Pakistan and Nepal and Tibet and surrounding areas, leading to shortages of food from drought. Many regions are entering droughts that are almost consistent, leading scientists to question if they are the new normal. Below are some projections of droughts and floods around the world.

Actually there are several different times of droughts that lead from one to the next and not all droughts go through each type.  First there is a meteorological drought or a drought relating to weather where there is little or no precipitation. Second there is hydrological drought when there is a low water supply in rivers and in groundwater which occurs after many months of meteorological drought.  After a hydrological drought there is an agricultural drought which is when yields drop or crops fail due to a lack of water.  Lastly there is a socioeconomic drought when water to communities and food and other products like energy are not able to be bought or sold because of the drought.  Usually a hydrological drought will take a long time to be fixed unlike a meteorological drought. Also there are many causes to a drought 1) there is a drought related to high temperatures, which is when heatwaves move through they require agriculture and communities to use more water to hydrate humans and crops and cool machinery and animals so the demand increases, 2) the weather causes droughts either from high pressure systems lasting for long times or climatic oscillations like El Nino and La Nina, 3) as a drought continues or as soil moisture goes down there is less water to cause precipitation, so this is a positive feedback loop on droughts, but usually weather doesn’t stay in one location and moves and usually where the majority of evaporation occurs is not the same place precipitation occurs, 4) Higher demand for water can cause drought, for example Lake Mead which supplies water for Arizona, Nevada, and California is decreasing in size not just due to a 19 year drought, its also due to rising demand for the water.  So this means that usually drought is connected to meteorological factors but not always.  5) The timing of when the water comes doesn’t coincide with the agricultural season leading to water shortages and crops not able to be grow.  It may also be hard to tell when a drought is coming because they are slowly happening.  Also climate change causing intense downpours really doesn’t help alleviate the drought it creates because usually intense rains run right into rivers and streams and back out to sea, and the ground gets overly saturated, and excess is washed away and the soil dries up after a while, while a slower more steady rainfall would allow more water to be soaked up by the soil.

To adapt to these droughts and heatwaves we can implement better water capture and storage systems, increasing energy efficiency in buildings, increasing the ability to store food, increasing international aid to developing countries, using genetic engineering to create drought resistant crops.  We can also create more water efficient appliances and housing and regulate and limit water use for non-essential things. We can use alternative water supplies, desalination, limit water use when water is scarce, reduce water pressure in water pipes and use public relation campaigns to push for less water use.  We can also change water rights laws so people who have the most rights are not the people who get their first or pay the most, but the people who need the most for the most essential activities.

            Next week: War and Conflict.

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https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Illustrative-map-of-future-climate-change-impacts-on-freshwater-Adapted-from-Kundzewicz_fig7_264889492

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/drought-definition https://jainsusa.com/blog/drought/ https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50602971 https://www.vox.com/2016/5/23/11736340/lake-mead-water-drought-southwest https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/climate/colorado-river-water.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-climate-change-is-already-making-droughts-worse https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13944550 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a010-southern-rainfall-decline.shtml https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2018/oct/03/the-new-normal-how-climate-change-is-making-droughts-worse https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-the-east-african-drought/ https://www.c2es.org/content/drought-and-climate-change/ https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtforKids/DroughtEffects.aspx

https://www.carbonbrief.org/droughts-and-heatwaves-cause-10-drop-in-annual-crop-harvests https://www.outsideonline.com/2289216/20-years-wildfires-will-be-six-times-larger https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/climate-change-intensifies-california-drought-scientists-say https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/science/climate-change-intensifies-california-drought-scientists-say.html?auth=login-google&emc=rss&partner=rss&utm_campaign=65eb9fd7f9-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Daily%20Carbon%20Briefing&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-65eb9fd7f9-303449629

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31102018/jet-stream-climate-change-study-extreme-weather-arctic-amplification-temperature

https://www.dw.com/en/drought-crisis-in-the-horn-of-africa/a-38950292 https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/horn-africa-millions-suffering-due-prolonged-drought-190318055110862.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2018/06/19/how-can-drought-set-after-so-much-heavy-rain-its-easier-than-you-think/#1e92ed6061d5

5 Causes Of Drought

Sea Level Rise is a huge threat to humanity, as it causes many national security and environmental refugee, health, economic impacts and will leave areas uninhabitable.  The danger posed by Sea Level Rise is very significant.  In this blog post I will be discussing Sea Level Rise, the projections, causes, current data, who vulnerable and what we can do about it.

Currently the sea is rising at 3.3 millimeters per year.  That may not seem like much but it has some serious implications and this rate has been increasing (NASA Climate Change).  The average sea level has risen 8-9 inches between 1880 and today, and just in the last 25 years a third of that has occurred.  I say average because the sea doesn’t rise at a uniform rate because of meteorological, geological, and oceangraphical reasons for example the strength of winds and ocean currents and land rising from the last ice age (climate.gov) (Magnusson).  

Currently several areas have been affected by sea level rise. Let’s start our field trip in Southern Florida.  In Southern Florida, the sea level has risen to a point that now “King Tides” or significantly high tides are flooding communities that usually are not affected by them.  This water is flooding parking lots, streets and into homes and businesses.  The flooding is becoming worse and more common.  This also is a threat to water lines, from saltwater getting into the drinking water supply.  Florida also has porous soil that makes water more easily flow through the soil (Tampa Bay Times).  Another area is Bangladesh where the seas are flooding rural areas.  This leaves soil infertile and erodes the soil.  Each year 50,000 to 200,000 people are displaced by erosion and sea level rise and that isn’t counting those who leave after cyclones hit.  This has created a situation of “environmental refugeeism”, where hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis move to the city, Dhaka and end up in the city’s poorest areas.  Scientists predict by 2050 17 percent of the country will be submerged and 20 million will be displaced. Dhaka isn’t immune to flooding either.  Most that move live in nonpermanent shelters and have little to none potable water, have little to eat and bathe and drink from a river, in which trash and industrial waste and sewage are dumped straight into the river.  The city doesn’t provide them with basic services because it doesn’t want them to be “permanent.” They work in jobs like a trash picker or in garment factories. Bangladesh isn’t a huge country, about the size of Iowa.  Other than the sea Bangladesh is completely surrounded by India. India doesn’t really want anything to do with migrants from Bangladesh (National Geographic and Marcin Szczepanski.) Back in the US, in Louisiana a whole community of Native Americans is having to relocate.  The community is called the Isle de Jean Charles.  Sea Level Rise, and Soil Subsidence is pushing this community into the ocean.  The tribe of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Native Americans is having to move from their historical homeland as 2,000 square miles of Louisiana delta is disappearing.  The island was in 1955 22,400 acres but now its only 320 acres, and it extremely close to losing its only access road.  The US Department of Housing and Urban Development has given a $48 million relocation grant to relocate the community (Ted Jackson). Also communities in Alaska are succumbing to sea level rise, sea ice retreating, permafrost melting and coastal erosion. Most of these communities are also native communities (Oliver Milman). Also island nations in the Pacific are succumbing to sea level rise. One of them Kiribati is so much in danger is bought land in Fiji to relocate to when their home disappears beneath the waves.  Sea Level Rise is reducing the ability to grow food and have fresh water.  In New York City, Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge was made 11.4% worse than it would without sea level rise.  And Hurricane Sandy isn’t alone, if Hurricane Katrina had climatic and the sea level factors of the 1900s, the storm surge would have been 15% to 60% lower.

            Sea Level Rise is has two main causes, loss of glaciers and ice sheets and heat expansion. First Land-based ice for example on Greenland and Antarctica and Glaciers melts leading to a rise in the sea level.  The two most worrying of these are the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets.  If the Greenland Ice Sheet completely melted, the sea level would rise 6 meters or 20 feet. The Greenland Ice Sheet is 656,000 square miles. Summer melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet increased by 30% from 1979 to 2006. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melted sea levels would rise 3.2 meters.  Together that would make more than 9.2 meters or 30 feet, something almost unimaginable (and that isn’t including mountain glaciers). These ice sheets are connected to the ocean by glaciers.  Most worrying about West Antarctica Ice Sheet is that it sits below sea level and that warm ocean water meets the grounding line below the glacier’s ice tongue and making these glaciers unstable and if these collapsed it could lead to a gradual collapse of the entire ice sheet (National Snow and Ice Data Center) (Antarcticglaciers.org) (Carolyn Beeler).  Glaciers are also melting at alarming rates.  Nine thousand billion tons of ice melted between 1961 and 2016 from mountain glaciers.  This could be 25 to 30% of sea level rise (Olivia Rosane).  Another cause is warming waters.  As waters warm from climate change, they expand leading to larger seas (climate.gov).

            Current Average projections for the world average sea level from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is if we stay below 2 degrees Celsius of warming we’ll have a range of 1 to 2 feet, if go over 2 degree we will have a range 2 to 3.6 feet.  But the IPCC also said in its “Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere” that 6 feet of sea level rise “cannot be ruled out.” Below I have some pictures of sea level rise in different parts of the world.

6 ft—Boston

6 ft—–New York City

6 ft—-Philadelphia

6 ft—–Atlantic City and New Jersey Shoreline

6 ft—-Norfolk Naval Base

6 ft—–Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina

6 ft—-Miami

Florida 3 FT

Charleston, South Carolina, 3ft

Norfolk Virginia 3ft

New Jersey Seaboard 3ft

Boston 3ft

England and the Netherlands 3ft

Louisiana 1 ft

New Jersey Seaboard 1 ft

Charleston, South Carolina 1 ft

For southern Florida the IPCC predicts by 2030, 6 inches more sea level rise on average, and on the high end of scale NOAA predicts a foot.  By 2060, the IPCC predicts 14 inches and NOAA predicts 2.8 feet.  By 2100 the IPCC predicts 2.58 feet and NOAA predicts 6.75 feet.

Sea Level Rise brings with it a host of problems, first higher seas contribute to higher storm surge and larger flood areas during hurricanes and other large storms.  For example what I said earlier with Hurricane Sandy.  This can also contribute to coastal erosion and there but subsidence.  The flooding can cause people to be stranded without help and will break down infrastructure.  It can also kill people trying to swim or drive in the water.

Also a problem is that sea level rise will push people further inland causing fights over resources, and over land.  This makes area more conflict prone and could bring us into wars.  The US Department of Defense named climate change a “threat multiplier” for this reason. This is very serious concern and could be the worst impact climate change has. Also Sea Level Rise is harming military bases like the home of the US Atlantic Fleet, Norfolk.

The Loss of economic assets and since we are not being very keen to realize the impacts of sea level rise on our infrastructure and buildings, this could cause a large economic bubble, which could lead us into a depression or recession.  Also globally the world economy could lose more than 4% of its GDP just from sea level rise, without further mitigation or adaptation.

Relocating communities because of sea level rise can cause problems in its own including mental health, social networks, historical heritage, water and food security, sanitation, and health care.

Last but not least there is saltwater intrusion which cause saltwater to seep into our water supply systems and leave areas without potable drinking water.  This is a concern for many areas of the along the coast.

To adapt to Sea Level Rise there is a bunch of things we can do.  To protect communities we can build dikes and seawalls and sea gates to protect areas.  We can put buildings on stilts to allow the sea into areas while protecting our buildings.  We can redirect water into areas for example parking lots and parks, and floating communities.  We can use large pumps to pump out water from underground or from in our streets. We can retreat from the coast line and we should put money towards communities being able to do that. We can raise infrastructure to make sure critical infrastructure is not affected by flooding.  We can invest in the water supply infrastructure to keep that safe.  There is a lot of things we can do stop sea level rise but probably the most important one is reaching net zero emissions.

Thank you for visiting and looking at my blog post.

Sincerely,

Brendan Wissinger

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level

https://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/our-programs/sea-level-rise

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-flooded-future-global-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise-worse-than-previously-understood

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/global-sea-level-rise

https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/research/methods/projecting-sea-level-rise/

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/

https://ocean.si.edu/conservation/climate-change/map-boston-3-meter-sea-level-rise

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24012017/sea-level-rise-global-warming-federal-report-donald-trump

As sea levels rise, how long until the Netherlands is under water?

https://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/coastal/storm-surge

Click to access DOE-OE_SLR%20Public%20Report_Final%20_2014-10-10.pdf

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/underwater

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/adapting-to-sea-level-rise-could-save-trillions-by-2100-17034

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/how-will-retreating-from-the-sea-affect-our-health

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200127134809.htm

https://e360.yale.edu/features/rising_waters_how_fast_and_how_far_will_sea_levels_rise

https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/storm-surge-and-sea-level-rise-advancing-waters

What are the Major Economic Implications of Sea Level Rise?

https://www.businessinsider.com/sea-level-rise-3-feet-in-80-years-un-report-2019-9

https://www.wlrn.org/post/south-florida-doomed-sea-level-rise-experts-say-no-fact-theyre-optimistic#stream/0

The climate crisis, migration, and refugees

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rising-seas-threaten-norfolk-naval-shipyard-raising-fears-catastrophic-damage-n937396

How climate change could trigger recession

https://www.neefusa.org/nature/water/groundwater-and-rising-seas

https://www.cgg.wa.gov.au/live/my-environment/coastal-hazard-risk-management-and-adapta

tion-planning/adapting-to-sea-level-rise.aspx

Click to access 15-117-NCCARFINFOGRAPHICS-5-03%2812Apr%29-UPLOADED.pdf

Army Corps of Engineers proposes swinging sea gates for New York Harbor

https://www.euronews.com/2019/10/14/rising-sea-levels-how-the-netherlands-found-ways-of-working-with-the-environment

https://www.nrdc.org/onearth/bangladesh-country-underwater-culture-move

https://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/2019/11/01/king-tides-are-a-glimpse-into-future-with-rising-seas-for-many-flooding-is-the-new-normal/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/on-louisiana-coast-a-native-community-sinks-slowly-into-the-sea-isle-de-jean-charles

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/23/waiting-for-the-tide-to-turn-kiribatis-fight-for-survival

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/10/alaska-coastal-towns-sea-level-rise-climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/10/alaska-coastal-towns-sea-level-rise-climate-change

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/superstorm-sandy-and-sea-level-rise

Hurricanes and Climate Change

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/climate-change-drives-migration-crisis-in-bangladesh-from-dhaka-sundabans/

Sea Level Rise Added $2 Billion to Sandy's Toll in New York City

https://www.climatesignals.org/events/hurricane-katrina-2005

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

If all the ice in Antarctica were to melt, how much would global sea level rise? How quickly is this likely to happen?

Grounding Lines

https://interactive.pri.org/2019/05/antarctica/thwaites-glacier-collapse.html

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/melting-glaciers-causing-25-to-30-of-sea-level-rise

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

https://climate.nasa.gov/

Surging Seas of Climate Central: https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#8/22.294/110.391?show=satellite&projections=1-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=6&unit=feet&pois=hide

Sea Level Rise Viewer of NOAA: https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html

Why is Biodiversity important?

A healthy ecosystem requires a large variety of different plant and animal life. Rich biodiversity increases ecosystem productivity. For example the more species we have on the planet the more they can all depend on each other. Human health can be affected by biodiversity because by having a variety of plants, fungi, and animals, we buffer our bodies against disease and infection, and we can also use certain plants to make medicines that treat disease and infection. Having rich biodiversity also ensures we have clean air, water, soil, and other materials we may need. The air we breathe is cleansed by contributing members of the ecosystem. With more species becoming endangered and extinct everyday, the future can be uncertain. When one species is lost, it causes a chain reaction and other species will continue to be lost. 

How is Climate Change Playing a Role?

Climate change is an abnormal shift in climate patterns, it will cause the world to fluctuate along with the ecosystems around it. With temperatures and sea levels rising around the globe, it is making it difficult for plants and animals to adapt to these changes. Those who cannot adapt will die. One huge example of this is the coral reefs. Coral reefs are part of the most diverse ecosystem on the planet. They provide protection from the damaging effects from storms, and they provide shelter and habitat for many marine organisms. We also use the coral reefs to make certain medicines that help us survive. It is estimated that 27% of coral reef systems have already been destroyed and 32% is at risk of being destroyed over the next 32 years. With the coral reefs dying off, this leaves many marine organisms at risk without proper habitat, and nutrition. 

Altered land use

The destruction of land to create new cities and agricultural fields can shift climate, this is due to the chopping down of trees and plants that cool the atmosphere. Natural landscapes that are destroyed to create agricultural fields are causing more greenhouse gases to be emitted into the atmosphere because it is used for more food production. Overpopulation is a key factor in this. One way we could partially solve this problem is reducing the amounts of chemicals we use in agriculture production, or finding more eco-friendly methods. With the destruction of land also comes the destruction of habitats that species live in, this is contributing to the mass extinction rates we are having now. 

How can society reduce biodiversity loss?

There are many ways we as society can reduce the loss of biodiversity. A good place to start would be investing in more eco-friendly options, reducing meat consumption, and donating to agencies like the World Wildlife Foundation that are already helping the cause. Be overall more aware of what you are putting into the environment around you!

-Kaila Teets

Climate change is an overarching phenomenon that is affecting all parts of the world, as well as being affected by all parts of the world. The aspect of one change causing subsequent changes is called ‘feedback’. Feedback is called ‘positive’ when the subsequent effect enhances the initial cause, similar to how running on a hot day makes you feel even hotter. Feedback is called ‘negative’ when the secondary effect works against the initial effect, like how it requires more effort to juice an orange that is already half juiced, than one that is has not been juiced at all. These feedbacks on the climatologic scale can play a pivotal role in how climate change can worsen over time. This phenomenon can most easily be tracked within the Arctic Circle, so we will focus there for this piece.  

            The feedback mechanisms over the land and the oceans differ, so we will discuss over land factors now and oceanic mechanism later on. The initial mechanism is a generally warming atmosphere due to the effect of increased levels of greenhouse gases. Most land within the Arctic Circle is covered in a layer of permafrost with varying duration and thickness. Permafrost is when the ground is frozen solid form most of the, if not the entire, year due to the cold temperatures. As the atmosphere starts to warm, so too does the ground underneath of it. This will gradually thin and deplete the permafrost over time. The main cause for concern here is that there is significant amount of methane gas trapped underneath of the permafrost across a large area of the land within the Arctic Circle. This methane exists in these areas as the result of decaying biologic matter from thousands to millions of years prior. Methane is itself a powerful greenhouse gas, and would only worsen the ongoing greenhouse effect. This creates a loop of positive feedback, where the warming of the atmosphere causes permafrost to melt, which releases additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, causing a cyclic pattern that will continue to worsen autonomously. Additionally, and contrary to what some will state, there isn’t much benefit to be gained from the no longer frozen land. The land will be unstable, so buildings will not be able to be constructed on it, and it will be very poor for agriculture, so large scale farming cold not occur.

            Feedback mechanisms also are present over the oceans within the Arctic Circle. Most of the oceans within the Arctic Circle are covered in ice permanently or semi-permanently for most of the year. The warming of the atmosphere is causing more of the permanent ice to become seasonal, and the edges of the existing seasonal ice to disappear. This causes a positive feedback due to the decreasing albedo of this region. Albedo is a measure of the reflectivity of a surface, and decreasing the albedo of a surface proportionally increases its ability to absorb light and heat. This follows that: warmer atmosphere melts some of the ice, the exposed ocean is less reflective than the ice and can absorb more heat, thus warming the neighboring ice more, and creating a circular pattern of melting arctic ice sheets. In theory, the increase in ocean surface could also create a negative feedback because some atmospheric carbon dioxide can be absorbed into the newly exposed ocean. However, this effect would be incredibly minute compared to the rate of absorptive warming, let alone the rate with which new carbon dioxide is entering the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels and other human causes. A secondary effect of the melting of the existing sea ice is the collapse of the local ecosystems in this area, as the habitat for arctic animals melts away into nothing.

            So, to sum up, climate change is affecting the entire world. There are many factors that influence the effects that climate change will have on an area, as well as the intensity of those changes. As demonstrated by our selected area of study, many of the aspects of climate change are part of a feedback loop of some kind. The majority of are a positive feedback that worsens the existing patterns of change. Some negative feedback loops that work against the existing patters do show up, but are unfortunately rendered inconsequential at the larger scale. This could however be used for our benefit as well. These loops would work in reverse, meaning that if we could lessen the initial causes, the lops would help to create a trend where less change could happen, which is the ideal scenario for successful continuous inhabitation of the Earth.