The link between crime and climate has drawn attention to the field of criminology and sociology since the mid-19th century. With temperatures quickly rising, we could see an increase of two to three million more violent crimes between now and the end of the century. With studies being conducted that show the link between warming temperatures and an increase in crime, there is one likely explanation; warmer temps lead to more people being out and about, which creates more opportunity for crime.
The Temperature- Aggression Hypothesis
The temperature- aggression hypothesis basically states that people exposed to psychological heat stress are more likely to see personal interactions as aggressive rather than ordinary conversations; we all know how cranky some people can get when they are out on a hot, humid summer day. This can result in someone getting angry over a situation they would not typically be angry about. The biggest increases in crime were rape, sexual assault, violence involving a weapon, and violence resaulting in serious injury. The temperature- aggression hypothesis will describe an increase in violent crimes, but not necessarily property damage, or robberies. Although, property damage and robberies will still increase due to the fact that more people will be outside and around other people’s property. Property damage and robberies can be driven by the “Routine Activities Theory”, which states that crime doesn’t typically happen in isolation, and is driven by opportunity. Heat creates opportunity for more people to be on the streets, and be negatively influenced.
The Trends
Research pulled from the FBI crime database and NOAA climate data shows the correlations becoming more relevant in warmer winters. The crimes that have shown the biggest spike include assaults and robberies.
(Figure 1: Courtesy of IOP Science)
On the graph above, you can see the general rising trend of the amount of violent crimes committed per month that correlate with the increase in temperature. From 1.5 degrees celsius, you see a little less than 1,000 violent crimes being committed per month, while at a 4 degree celsius rise in temperature, you see 3,000-5,000 violent crimes being committed per month. Much research is being done to predict the projected increase in crime at certain temperatures. This could be a good way to bring attention to the public about climate change, because crime will directly affect the population in a more immediate way than climate change alone.
Overall, as long as temperatures continue to increase, so will crime. The only way we can reduce climate-induced crime is to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and improve our climate conditions. I see bringing climate-induced crime to the public eye as a good way to educate people on the more immediate effects of climate change, most people turn a blind eye to the situation because they assume it will not affect them in their lifetime. Let’s start now.
-Kaila Teets
Global Climate Change and Society 